Comments on: The variable impact of oil prices on everyday life and our increasing vulnerability http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/ Exploring How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything Sun, 28 Aug 2011 14:21:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Venkat http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/comment-page-1/#comment-145628 Venkat Sun, 06 Jul 2008 15:46:45 +0000 http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/#comment-145628 This is definitely the way to think. Far too many folks assume that higher gasoline prices simply diffuse through the economy and show up as increased general inflation with some asymmetries. Beyond a point, those gradualist dynamics simply don't apply, and Mad Max dynamics take over. The History Channel, in its <a href="http://www.history.com/minisites/megadisasters/" rel="nofollow">Mega Disasters series</a> episode on <a href="http://store.aetv.com/html/product/index.jhtml?id=108290" rel="nofollow"> oil apocalypse </a> showcased a nicely calibrated set of what-ifs around structural oil-shock thinking, ranging from Mad Max scenarios to more benign ones. One of the talking heads put it succinctly -- it may no longer be possible to produce a soft landing. Structural shock dynamics are notoriously hard to model, as the Club of Rome found with its system dynamics 'Limits to Growth' approach decades ago. I don't believe mathematical models can be tractable here. Narrative what-if strategic simulations are one way you can prepare and anticipate. Another might be a crowdsourced prediction through a carefully-designed prediction market. That might actually be a great experiment for you Wikinomics guys to design. This is definitely the way to think. Far too many folks assume that higher gasoline prices simply diffuse through the economy and show up as increased general inflation with some asymmetries. Beyond a point, those gradualist dynamics simply don’t apply, and Mad Max dynamics take over.

The History Channel, in its Mega Disasters series episode on oil apocalypse showcased a nicely calibrated set of what-ifs around structural oil-shock thinking, ranging from Mad Max scenarios to more benign ones. One of the talking heads put it succinctly — it may no longer be possible to produce a soft landing.

Structural shock dynamics are notoriously hard to model, as the Club of Rome found with its system dynamics ‘Limits to Growth’ approach decades ago. I don’t believe mathematical models can be tractable here. Narrative what-if strategic simulations are one way you can prepare and anticipate. Another might be a crowdsourced prediction through a carefully-designed prediction market.

That might actually be a great experiment for you Wikinomics guys to design.

]]> By: Bloggoversikten » Blog Arkiv » Oljeflyt og -forbruk http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/comment-page-1/#comment-145510 Bloggoversikten » Blog Arkiv » Oljeflyt og -forbruk Sun, 06 Jul 2008 10:28:33 +0000 http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/#comment-145510 [...] (Via Anthony Williams) [...] [...] (Via Anthony Williams) [...]

]]> By: Vincent Clement http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/comment-page-1/#comment-144816 Vincent Clement Sat, 05 Jul 2008 01:56:05 +0000 http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/04/the-variable-impact-of-oil-prices-on-everyday-life-and-our-increasing-vulnerability/#comment-144816 So decades of market distortion via subsidies and low taxes have finally caught up with reality in rural areas. So decades of market distortion via subsidies and low taxes have finally caught up with reality in rural areas.

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