Everyone is talking about an impending skills shortage. In the U.S., the gap is expected to be greater than 3 million workers by 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see chart below). In China, the workforce is expected to grow by less than 5% from now until 2015, by which time one-third of the population will be over the age of 50! The major concern is that the demographic “echo” of Net Geners won’t be enough to fill the shoes of retiring Baby Boomers. Even if the Net Gen’s numbers are strong, their skills are weak; the global Net Generation talent pool (mainly in India and China) is often lamented for its lack of critical language, communication, and technical skills required in today’s knowledge economy. The domestic talent of coddled youngsters is only marginally better.
What’s often missing from the talent crunch conversation is a discussion of Gen X and the implications for them. There’s a big chunk of talent that’s leaving the workforce at the top of the corporate food chain. But, all the talent coming in is at the bottom of the food chain, and many of them lack the requisite skills even to be functioning at an entry level. So, the people filling the Baby Boomers shoes (not to mention training the Net Gen) will be Gen Xers – a very small demographic of highly-trained professionals who will be in high demand for leadership positions. As we know, successful enterprises are driven by successful leaders, and these will soon be in short supply – the real talent crunch. What’s more, as Dan points out in his recent post “A digital generation?,” Gen Xers have mastered productive uses of the Internet to a much higher degree than the entertainment-focused Net Gen, and are the true drivers of technology innovation.
What does all this mean? Maybe, success will come, not only from hiring and retaining Net Gen talent, but also by focusing on retaining and cultivating Gen X leaders.
For some statistical insight, check out the following graphs taken from the article, “The Silent Generation Meets Generation Y: How to Manage a Four Generation Workforce with Panache,” on the Talent Readiness blog (by fellow BSGers Tom Casey, Tim Donahue, and Eric Seubert).
Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and projections of Census/BLS and BEA data, via Talent Readiness blog, March 2008.
Source: The Concours Institute, via Talent Readiness blog, March 2008.
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More solutions are offered by the very 2.0 generations of tools; if you’re a youngster living in Eastern Europe, for example - unless you’re a programmer - it’s very unlikely that you’ll get the opportunity to look at the jobs that you would be very much able to perform remotely with a little bit of coaching.
Comment by Serrin - March 24, 2008 9:56 am
Perhaps as Gen Y comes into its own and begins to be forced to capitalize on technology in the same way that it seems Gen X has, the increased productivity will offset the lack of bodies to some degree. While Gen X has been more effective at mobilizing tech for business purposes so far, I don’t doubt that the lifetime of exposure to computers that has been the experience of Gen Y will allow them to find applications that can’t even begin to be predicted.
Perhaps this is overoptimism, hubris, or naivete as I am a Gen Yer myself. However, personal experience shows that many of the most beneficial aspects of modern engineering software are barely being taken advantage of by major, major manufacturing corporations and massive amounts of capability are waiting in the wings for someone to understand and capitalize on. I think it is good to remember that the internet is not the only way to capitalize on modern computational capabilities.
I believe the law of accelerating returns is working in our favor and we might be able, to some degree, to absorb the projected the manpower deficiency.
Comment by Ben - March 24, 2008 11:05 pm
Maybe we should all start to consider the implications of statements like : “one-third of the population will be over the age of 50!”. The people who are 50 and over today are a far cry from being over the hill - it would be a good idea to harness their capabilities, skills and knowledge, tempered with that of any other Generation that is around. Collaboration and all of its synonyms mean that don’t they?
Canned Heat some while ago: “Together we stand…”
Rob
Comment by Rob - March 26, 2008 1:39 am
Ben - thanks for the comment about the potential productivity boost related to Net Gen employees. That’s the main argument against the talent crunch; that fewer workers will do more with less (I’ll also refer readers to Dan’s post “Labor shortage?“). I certainly agree that most industries employ an underutilized workforce - certainly in manufacturing, but also in the service industry, call centers, retail, sales and marketing, and probably many others as well.
Rob, good point. In fact I think the Baby Boom will turn the whole notion of retirement on its head. There’s actually a company out there called YourEncore which is built specifically around the idea of harnessing the underutilized talents of an aging workforce and tapping into their expertise.
Comment by Naumi Haque - March 26, 2008 4:05 pm
[...] generational uses of networking on the Wikinomics blog - ”A Digital Generation“ and ”GenX and the Real Talent Crunch“. The bit that was most intriguing was this, from ”GenX and the Real Talent [...]
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